The Games They Are A’changin’ Part Three: The Impact of Covid-19, Isolation, and Cancellations
When I look back at the last post in this series, which was over a years ago, I can confidently say that my predictions were pretty accurate. Which doesn’t make me a prognosticator. The trends in growth were already established and accelerating, I just reported what I observed. But no one could have foreseen the astonishing changes ushered in by the Caronavirus pandemic.
While the game industry itself hasn’t faced the dramatic loss of income suffered by many other industries, this does not mean it’s been free from obstacles. This is an industry that thrives on creative collaboration and teamwork. Yes, remote software development was already on the increase even back when I wrote the 2018 article, but until a few months ago most development work was still on-site. There are both practical and cultural reasons for this. I’ve worked with teams and the energy of face-to-face interaction is a tangible thing. Anyone who’s shared a whiteboard to brainstorm everything from coding to marketing knows what I’m talking about. Obviously, switching to all remote work is a big challenge, but hardly insurmountable.
The biggest loss faced by the industry is live events. GDC, E3, PAX, and every other convention on the 2020 calendar are canceled, a tremendous loss for top publishers and small indie developers alike, not to mention the many thousands of people who worked in those convention spaces and are now without jobs.
When Covid-19 first took hold and forced the cancellation of entire seasons of professional sports, it was inevitable esports would step in and fill that gap. As Dean Takahashi reported in Venture Beat in February, esports was on its way to generating over a billion dollars in revenue for 2020. Will that still be the case? According to that same article, China was expected to be responsible for well over a third of that revenue. Will that change because of the global reaction to China’s role in the pandemic? Another possible factor is the cancellation of massive esports events. The key to how this will affect 2020 revenues rests on how fast esports can pivot to all-remote viewing.
From a use standpoint, esports is seeing massive and sudden growth. Variety reported in early April that streaming platform Twitch achieved “ all-time highs for hours watched, hours streamed and average concurrent viewership.” Despite technical issues faced by esports organizations, the opportunities for increased revenue are many. Besides advertising opportunities, traditional sports channels are desperate for more content. Esports juggernauts like “Overwatch,” Fortnite,” and “League of Legends” aren’t going anywhere, but now they may be joined by conventional sports games like FIFA and Madden NFL as new viewers crave the sports they’re missing. Taken together, it’s pretty certain esports will not earn less than predicted, and could conceivably earn a lot more.
Mobile will remain the top earner. No doubt many a remote worker will need a good puzzle or word game to get them through endless Zoom meetings. It’s ironic that only a year or so back, the World Health Organization added video games "gaming disorder" to its official list of mental health conditions. Now it considers games a healthy way for kids to avoid Covid-19. So it goes. Stay safe and healthy.
